This article was published in the 5th issue of Orman ve Av Magazine in 2022; available by citing the source.
With the warming of the weather, forests remain on the public agenda more often with fires. Forest fires are discussed more or less similarly every year, but many issues remain as open wounds that cannot be healed in the eyes of the public. The fact that various senior executives make contradictory statements about forest fires with each other and even with themselves from time to time also has a distrustful effect on institutions.
Especially in 2021, a subject that was discussed intensely in the public was fire extinguishing planes. There is a perception that there is a correlation between renting fire-fighting planes and being able to extinguish the burning forest areas.
In this article, it will be roughly examined whether there is a correlation between the number of airplanes as well as some other fire extinguishing equipment and burned forest areas.
The figure below shows the numerical change of the fire extinguishing vehicles used by the forest organization (OGM) from 1988 to 2021 and the change in the total forest area burned.
Figure 1. Number of Fire Extinguishing Vehicles and Total Amount of Burned Forest Area
Yellow line shows the number of fire extinguishing vehicles while the blue line shows the annual amount of burned forest area.
As the extraordinarily large burned forest area seen in 2021 is excluded from the assessment, it is seen that the annual total burned forest area has made several small hills for many years and has been horizontal in the long term. However, the number of fire extinguishing vehicles increased enormously (16 times) in the same period of time.
It is seen that the peak formations in the total amount of burned area were in 1994, 2000, 2008 and 2021 (Figure 1). It is seen that there is a small hill in 1996, and increases in the total amount of burned area in the years of 2012-2013 and 2016-2017.
In September 1994, it is observed that there was a very high positive deviation from the long-term average temperature in Turkey (Figure 5). In 1994, did the fires of September make the biggest contribution to the formation of the peak in total amount of burned areas? I haven't been able to obtain data on this, but I think it probably is.
Figure 2. Average Temperature Deviation for June 2021 (MGM 2021a)
It is seen that there is a very high positive deviation from the long-term average temperature in July of 2000 (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Average Temperature Deviation for July 2021 (MGM 2021b)
It is observed that there are positive deviations from the long-term average in June, July, August and September of 2008 (Figures 2, 3, 4, 5). The summer season of 2008 was generally warmer than the average.
Figure 4. Average Temperature Deviation for August 2021 (MGM 2021c)
It is seen that there are positive deviations from the long-term average in June, July and August of 2021 (Figures 2, 3, 4). However, it is noteworthy that the deviations of this year are lower than the deviations of other peak years. The extreme value in the total amount of burned forest area in 2021 remains far beyond what can be explained by these temperature deviations.
Figure 5. Average Temperature Deviation for September 2021 (MGM 2021d)
Now let's look at the total amount of forest area burned and the number of planes and helicopters. In the figure below (Figure 6), the number of aircraft and helicopters leased to be used in firefighting activities and the total forest areas burned by years are shown (OGM Activity Reports).
Figure 6. Total Amount of Forest Area Burned by Number of Aircraft and Helicopters
Yellow line shows the number of helicopters and green line shows the number of airplanes while the blue line shows the annual amount of burned forest area.
It is clearly seen that there is no relationship between the number of planes and helicopters and the forest area burned. For example, after the extremely large burned forest area in 2021, 1994 is the second largest forest area burned. In 1994, there were no firefighting aircraft at hand and only six helicopters available, and a sizable forest area was burned though. In 2021, although 39 helicopters and four planes were available, unfortunately, the burned forest area is more than four times the area burned in 1994.
In the figure below, the ratio of the total forest area burned in that year to the number of fires in the same year is shown annually (Average burned area per fire). The 34-year average from 1988 to 2021 is 6.4 ha. In other words, an average of 6.4 ha of forest area was burned in every fire that broke out for 34 years. If the extremely large burned forest area in 2021 was not included, this would have averaged 5.1 ha. The following figure shows the deviations from this mean (6.4 ha).
Figure 7. Average Burned Areas per Fire
The average forest area burned per fire in 2021 is so high that it has reached nearly 8 times the 34-year average of 6.4 ha.
Interpreting the success in extinguishing forest fires as if it depends only on airplanes and helicopters is an approach based on incomplete information and it is misleading the society. In addition, from this point of view is also unfair for a much larger and more comprehensive fighting force than helicopters and planes
Combating forest fires can be successful with the effective management and administration of the latest technological possibilities, equipment and manpower. In this sense, it is seen that the amount of many vehicles and manpower that the forest general directorate (OGM) can use for fire fighting has increased over the years. For example, while there were 142 dozers in the vehicle park in 1988, this number increased to 178 in 2021. The number of water supply vehicles, which was 177 in 2009, increased to 285 in 2021. Again, the number of first response waterers, which was 147 in 2009, increased more than fifteen times to 2270 in 2021. Fire command vehicles, remote sensing mechanisms and unmanned aerial vehicles are also used in the fight against forest fires starting from 2019. The number of people employed as temporary workers by the general directorate of forestry, mostly to be employed in fire extinguishing works, has more than tripled from 2007 to 2021.
This general evaluation, which emerged with the data obtained from the activity reports of the General Directorate of Forestry, shows that there is not a deficiency in terms of manpower, tools and fire extinguishing equipment; It clearly shows that the development and expansion in this context is increasingly continuing.
However, there is an extremely large fire and therefore a weakness; So what weakness caused such an enormous forest area to burn in 2021? The answer must be a management-organization problem. The weakness in the administration-organization has created a weakness in the management and administration; the weakness here must have led to the burning of an incredibly large forest area. In order for disasters similar to those in 2021 not to be experienced again in the coming years, it is seen as a necessity for those who are in a decision-making position on these issues to make a very serious self-criticism and take the necessary steps for the public interest.
RESOURCES
MGM 2021a. 2021 June Temperature and Precipitation Evaluation. Department of Climate and Agricultural Meteorology, 15p.
MGM 2021b. 2021 July Temperature and Precipitation Evaluation. Department of Climate and Agricultural Meteorology, 15p.
MGM 2021c. 2021 August Temperature and Precipitation Evaluation. Department of Climate and Agricultural Meteorology, 15p.
MGM 2021d. 2021 September Temperature and Precipitation Evaluation. Department of Climate and Agricultural Meteorology, 15p.
OGM 2006. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2007. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2008. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2009. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2010. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2011. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2012. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2013. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2014. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2015. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2016. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2017. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2018. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2019. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2020. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
OGM 2021. General Directorate of Forestry Activity Report
Agriculture Forest Council 2019. Innovative Approaches in Combating Forest Fires Group Working Document.
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